SPY FINANZA / The US emergency revealed by the alarm over North Korea

SPY FINANZA / The US emergency revealed by the alarm over North Korea
SPY FINANZA / The US emergency revealed by the alarm over North Korea

Now we are really in trouble. There’s the official: North Korea has successfully tested a new long-range cruise missile. This was announced by the North Korean state news agency KCNA, explaining that the missile was able to reach a distance of 1,500 kilometers and that it is “a high-level strategic weapon”. That said, Japan and South Korea immediately reported the incident. And America wasted no time in launching a dead weight on the new global alarm: if for the Pentagon, “the incident shows how North Korea continues to focus on developing a military program and threatens neighboring countries and the community international “, a note from the White House stressed that the United States” is monitoring the situation “.

And you used to of these pages you know well: when Washington is forced to pull North Korea and the Doctor Strangelove, it means that the situation is getting decidedly heavy. We are in pre-despair. And the reason is quite intuitive, net of the Covid alarm and the quarrel Afghan now already passed in the cavalry: between now and the end of the year, Fed and associates will have to walk the tightrope walker to be able not to uncover Pandora’s box. So, every alarm is welcome, every emergency a real boon.

Because as this graph shows, Goldman Sachs broke the delay: over the last weekend, its analysts raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting the Qe taper in November, trading on from 45% to 70%. a reduction regime of 15 billion per month that guarantees the end of the expansion program in July 2022. All this, despite both the White House and the Fed itself have clearly played a Covid card in a clear way: President Biden with the most hard of his entire administration, the so-called no jab, no job in which it warned unvaccinated Americans that patience was running out, while the Central Bank officially included the Delta variant in its latest Beige Book as a reason for the slowdown in the third and perhaps fourth quarter GDP trend.

Why so much meat on the fire? These two graphs show it, from which it is clear that Washington has already largely dismissed the Qe taper as a problem to be addressed and is now concentrating on something else. The fiscal side of the welfare-statist drift: the package Build Back Better, a real avalanche of stimulus of public spending quantifiable in something like 4.5 trillion dollars, between bipartisan infrastructural investments and precisely the so-called post-pandemic national reconciliation program.

The US version of the PNRR, obviously to the nth degree. Something like 20% of US GDP, capable of being the largest fiscal stimulus intervention in US history. And in what context does such a deficit injection fit in? The second graph shows this: nominal GDP at 12% (but rapidly decreasing), 33% deficit and 5% inflation. Basically, gasoline on the fire. All this with 78 days of trading on the stock exchange between now and the end of the year and 3-6 weeks of absolute redde rationem for the real future of rates, since the go-ahead – almost certainly – from Congress to this avalanche of public spending will be the absolute driver. of a period of time already studded with divisive appointments, from the FOMC on 22 September to the German vote on 26 to the deadline set by Nancy Pelosi for the following day (27 September) precisely for the approval of the infrastructure package. And then the total end of the ban on evictions on October 3, the end-of-month deadline imposed by Janet Yellen to resolve the cyclical issue of the debt ceiling, the political elections in Japan on 22, the ECB meeting on 28, the G20 in Rome. of 30 October and finally the other FOMC of the Fed on 3 November. Basically, a tour de force capable of exhausting a horse.

Do you understand why so much meat is needed to destabilize the fire? Understand why he even put his hand to the last resort dell’North Korean nuclear alert? The taper is now the past, here we are already beyond. The market prices a thud in the indices around November, such as to guarantee the painless passage of a global political agenda clearly marked by deficit and debt (it is enough to hear the first debates of the Japanese electoral campaign, as if the Bank of Japan until today had remained stops in the face of an emergency) and able to open the doors to a 2022 that presents itself at least in its first months as a blank sheet. Because it may seem crazy, but in the US we are already thinking about a time horizon that has a clear turning point: November 8, 2022, mid-term elections. And to guarantee an electoral campaign capable of strengthening the balance, after Covid and Afghanistan, it will be necessary to put his hand to the wallet. Still.

It seems paradoxical, after what has been injected between the Fed and the Treasury in the last year and a half, but it is so. The debt dewatering machine is in action and knows no rest. Did you think the worst was now behind you? It was just the warm-up, the real game has yet to begin. Not surprisingly, just to load the kick-off with new competitive tension, here is lined up in the opposing ranks – surprisingly – the absolute champion of the sensation shot, Kim Jong-un, directly from the clinic to lose weight. If you have never seen the Doctor Strangelove by Stanley Kubrick it is definitely time to fix it. Because once the viewing is over, you will feel like you have watched the news and not a film.

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