Honey hard at work to fine-tune the maneuver. It starts from a base of 20-22 billion. With an eye on the tax reform, given that the enabling law should be enacted shortly, perhaps in the week. But the deadline of mid-October for the launch of the budget law, immediately after the update of the Def at the end of September, is fast approaching. And it has already raised the tension on many interventions: from the possible immediate reduction of the tax wedge (2-3.5 billion), i.e. the reduction in labor costs, to the soft reconfiguration of the Basic income – today it costs 7-8 billion a year – afterwards Quota 100, with the Fund to exit 4 years earlier, or at 62, dedicated to companies in crisis or in energy transition. Here too the cost varies from 2.5 to 3 billion depending on the final formalization of the measure. And then there are the new social safety nets, the cost of which when fully operational should be 3 billion a year for the state. The technical investigation has just begun, but the parties are already making requests, putting the stakes.
Single child allowance, who is entitled to and how the help of 167 euros per month works
Pensions, a Fund to exceed Quota 100 (to leave work 4 years early)
Palazzo Chigi’s goal is always to spend carefully, avoiding burdening the debt again. Help will come from the rapid pace at which the economy has restarted. At the moment the government technicians are hypothesizing a rise in GDP of 5.7-5.8% by the end of the year but it is not excluded to reach 6%, as also estimated by Confindustria. However, it will not be easy to maintain this economic boom “pace”. As mentioned, the initial estimated need is 20-22 billion: from the financing of the new universal Cig to the connected active employment policies, from the reform of pensions to the targeted measures for growth, parallel to but certainly not a substitute for those of the Recovery plan. And then the resources for health and the so-called “non-deferrable expenses”. On the table there is also the extension to 2023 of the super bonus 110%, with other simplifications in sight to get the measure off the ground. The synthesis will be made at Palazzo Chigi, trying to reconcile the forces of the parties.
The proxy on the tax reform originally expected in July must be presented by September. A reform that will be defined with the launch of the implementing decrees. Here too the hypotheses are many. There would be a convergence on the cancellation of IRAP. And an agreement would also be possible on the hypothesis of an immediate cut to the tax-contributory wedge. The decision will be made by the end of the month when definitive clarity must also be made on the chapter-folders. From 1 September, the Revenue-Collection Agency gradually launched the “notifications” of the folders frozen since March 2020 for the Covid emergency. But the center-right immediately went on the attack with Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini, who asked for a new postponement. Fi also called for reflection. And on these positions converges the M5S that insists on a new suspension of notifications of the folders and then relaunch the scrapping. The Democratic Party does not think the same way and argues that sooner or later the folders had to start again.
As known Salvini and Matteo Renzi have put the citizenship income, which costs 7-8 billion a year, on the dock in view of the maneuver. The League is aiming for a strong downsizing, also shared by Fi. Iv even called for a referendum to block it. But the Five Stars defend the subsidy with the sword, supported by Leu and Pd, which however defines it as “improvable”. And this also seems to be the line of Palazzo Chigi, which intends to keep the instrument alive but by enhancing controls and making the beneficiaries’ access to work faster.
Orlando’s shock absorber reform is not convincing, especially for the costs – about 8 billion – the Mef and not even some forces of the majority. For Iv, the costs should be contained by avoiding the free Cig for very small companies, and even Lega and Fi do not show particular enthusiasm for the project. The same undersecretary of the Mef Guerra has made it clear that a good reform can also be done with 5-6 billion.
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