Alloy at 20.5% (-0.6), Pd at 20 (-0.9), FdI at 18.8 (-0.2). Berlusconi’s party at 8.2 (+1.2). Slight decline in the premier and the government, but the approval rating remains high: Draghi at 66 and the executive at 61
The social climate after the summer break characterized by a good level of confidence regarding the country’s economic prospects, but also by the resumption of concern for the increase in contagion. Optimists about the economic situation prevail by 7 points compared to pessimists (35% against 28%, while 29% do not expect significant changes), whereas at the end of December last year, in the midst of the second wave of the pandemic, the pessimists prevailed over the optimists by 40 points (61% to 21%). The growth ofoptimism also testified by the economic climate updated every month by theState which marks a steady increase from March (index 92.2) to August (132.4). It is interesting to note that on the basis of the research carried out by Ipsos in 24 countries, Italy ranks second in terms of confidence increase from the month before the outbreak of Covid (January 2020) onwards. The personal economic outlook also shows an improvement: the optimists go from 20% last December to the current 28%, the pessimists drop from 37% to 23% and the relative majority (43%) does not foresee changes (on the other hand, the pension and fixed income earners prevail in the country).
On the side sanitary, on the other hand, there is an increase in concern compared to June, despite the positive trend of vaccination campaign: in fact, the conviction that the worst has passed is decreasing (from 49% to 38%) and the share of those who consider a growth in infections very or quite probable has more than doubled (69% against 32% in June). In short, the Delta variant it does not leave you calm and many fear that the situation of last autumn could reappear. Nearly four out of five respondents (79%) say they are already vaccinated; among those not yet vaccinated (21%) 2% definitely intend to do so, 8% categorically exclude it while about one in ten, although not prejudiced against the vaccine, expresses caution and would prefer to wait (8%) or does not know at all how to behave (3%). The hypothesis of introducing the vaccination obligation meets the consent of 60% of Italians, while 30% are against it and 10% do not take a position. The theme ofvaccination obligation very delicate, it is no coincidence that the share of opposites is much higher than that of no vax.
As for appreciation for the work of government he was born in premier, today’s survey shows a decrease of 4 points for both, in fact the approval rating for the executive stands at 61 (from 65 in July) and that for the president Draghi it returns to the values at the end of May (66) after having touched the highest value (70) before the summer break. The decrease in consensus (which, of course, remains at high values) appears surprising given the improvement in the economic climate. And certainly not the resumption of concern for the Covid to influence the opinions (in fact two out of three Italians express a very positive opinion on the vaccination campaign). The reasons are to be found in the frequent conflicts between the political forces of the majority. It was foreseeable that the armistice between some of the opposing forces supporting the government could weaken; the controversies and frequent disagreements have the double effect of displeasing shares of voters who are unwilling to accept the compromises required in a heterogeneous majority and, above all, of weakening the image of cohesion of the executive, whose action risks being considered ineffective because it is slowed down from the grueling attempts to heal internal fractures.
However, all this does not seem to determine significant changes in the voting intentions of Italians: the first three parties are separated by less than 2 points (Lega 20.5%, PD 20%, FdI 18.8%) and show a decline, more substantial for the PD ( -0.9%) and for the Lega (-0.6%) compared to FdI (-0.2%). The M5s with 17% remains on the levels of July, while Forza Italia with 8.2% increases by 1.2%. The three main parties of the center-right confirm their advantage over the center-left with 47.5% of the preferences. The internal flows of the three forces seem to reward Berlusconi’s party, which appears decidedly a staunch supporter of the Draghi government. The rate of abstention and indecision remains very consistent (37.8%).
Several political forces are struggling to adapt to the new context characterized not only by an atypical government majority, but above all by the centrality assumed by the PNRR which should lead them to change their perspective, focusing on reforms and medium-long term objectives, abandoning the obsessive search for immediate consensus.
September 11, 2021 (change September 11, 2021 | 09:04)
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