Center-right favored in Turin, Trieste, Rome and Calabria. Preferred center-left in Milan, Bologna and Naples in tandem with the 5-star Movement. These are the results of the pre-election poll carried out by the “Opinio Italia” consortium for Rai.
Sunday 3 and Monday 4 October 2021 will vote for the next local elections (possible ballots on Sunday 17 and Monday 18 October). 12,015,276 Italians will be called to the polls to elect municipal councils and mayors of 1,162 municipalities. There will also be a vote for the renewal of the regional council of Calabria and for the supplementaries of the Chamber and Senate (colleges of Siena and Rome Primavalle).
The percentages in detail in the big cities: Turin
The center-right candidate in Turin Paolo Damilano he continues to be favored (42-46%): having started the electoral campaign earlier and his entrepreneurial profile seem to be pleasing to the city.
The candidate of the center left, Stefano Lo Russo, was nominated through the primaries which, however, do not seem to have strengthened his candidacy (39-43%).
The candidate of the 5 Star Movement, Valentina Sganga, despite the outgoing syndicate, it does not seem to be able to gather the approval of Chiara Appendino and could stop below the double figure (7-11%).
Outgoing mayor in Milan, Beppe Sala, consolidates its advantage over the center-right (44-48%). The candidate of the center-right, Luca Bernardo, does not seem able to recover at the moment (38-42%). At the moment, the candidate of the 5 Star Movement is excluded in this two-person challenge Layla Pavone (3-5%).
In Trieste the center-right candidate for mayor, Roberto di Piazza, thanks to his experience in guiding the city, seems to be projected towards his fourth syndication (47-51%).
The possibility still hangs in the balance that this victory will manifest itself already in the first round by virtue, rather than by the strength of the center-left candidate, Francesco Russo (34-38%), of the fact that minor candidates could collect a not marginal share of consensus (7-11%). Alessandra Richetti of the M5S is 4-8%.
The city of Bologna is one of the cases in which the coalition between the complete center-left and the 5 Star Movement will be tested. The choice of Matteo Lepore it is also in continuity with the outgoing mayor, Virginio Merola, and stands at between 56-60%.
Union of political forces and continuity of management therefore generate a potential first round victory for the candidate of this coalition, in second position Fabio Battistini center-right candidate (35-39%).
In the capital, one of the most complex contexts of this electoral round. There seems to be only one candidate in the ballot: Enrico Michetti, of the center-right (29-33%).
The big challenge is therefore played for second place in the ballot: at the moment it seems to have an advantage RobertoGualtieri (22-26%), by virtue of the structural strength of the Democratic Party in the city. If on one hand Virginia Raggi, outgoing mayor, confirms his presence among the voters of the 5 Star Movement and in the suburbs (19-23%), on the other Carlo Calenda of Share collects a consensus of opinion that could bring it a significant share of disjoint voting (15-19%)
In Naples, the center-left coalition with the 5 Star Movement seems to bring positive results (42-46%), to the detriment of the center-right (27-31%). However, the presence of other candidates who always insist on the center-left electorate – such as Antonio Bassolino (Bassolino list 16-20%) e Alessandra Clemente (DeMa list, 6-10%) – it could, however, prevent a victory in the first round and lead to the ballot Gaetano Manfredi (Csx and M5s) and Catello Maresca (Cdx).
The regional in Calabria
In Calabria Roberto Occhiuto, a candidate of the center-right, seems clearly ahead (44-48%) over the coalition between the center-left and the 5 Star Movement led by Amalia Bruni (24-28%). Also in this case the presence of two other candidates from the center-left area – Luigi De Magistris (DeMa list, 16-20%) and Mario Oliverio (Democrats and Progressives, 8-12%) – seems to favor the center right.