“The economy is expected to recover to 2019 levels by the first half of 2022”, after growth for this year estimated at 5.9%. “Public debt will rise to almost 160% of GDP in 2021”. This is what the OECD predicts in the Economic Survey on Italy. For the OECD, “to withdraw support for individuals and businesses too prematurely would generate more bankruptcies, less employment and greater poverty”. Hence the invitation to “continue to provide increasingly targeted fiscal support until the recovery is consolidated in the economic and employment sectors”. And the hope of “a medium-term fiscal plan to be implemented once the recovery is consolidated”, to “reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP”
OECD: Italy’s GDP + 5.9% in 2021, + 4.1% in 2022
For 2021, the OECD estimates a growth of 5.9% for Italy, after “the contraction of 8.9% in 2020, one of the most significant recorded among the countries” in the area. Significant fiscal support in 2021 “will foster a recovery in the short term, with the acceleration of vaccination rates and the easing of restrictions.” For the future, “larger public investments, including those financed by EU Next Generation funds, to greater confidence and higher levels of demand, they will support investment in the private sector ”. However, adds the OECD, “compared to other large economies, in Italy the recovery will continue to delay, with a GDP that will recover the levels of 2019 only in the first half of 2022”
OECD in Italy: contain pension expenditure, via quota 100
Containing pension expenditure by letting the early retirement scheme (“Quota 100”) and the so-called “Woman Option in December 2021” expire. And immediately re-establishing the correlation between retirement age and hope: this is one of the recommendations addressed by the OECD to Italy. “The pressures on spending related to demographic aging and interests are high and destined to increase in the long term”, warns the international body based in Paris, recalling that “the government has committed itself to restoring pre-existing debt levels. Covid “
Franco: quota 100 expires, balanced solution in maneuver
Between the end of 2021 and the beginning of next year, “we will have a major change in retirement requirements, and the 100 quota will expire. We are aware that some economic sectors are facing difficulties, they are aspects to be taken into consideration », said the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco during a press conference on the Italy Survey of the OECD. “We must discuss it in the government” but “I am confident that the executive will find a balanced solution in the next budget law”. The minister reiterated that the government aims for “post-Covid growth that is higher” than that achieved “before the crisis linked to the pandemic”.
OECD, Cormann: Italy’s goal is sustainable growth
Italy is moving towards growth “of about 6% this year” after the strong recession of 2020, now “the goal is to make growth stronger and more sustainable” on a structural basis, said Mathis Cormann, general secretary of the ‘OECD, presenting the Economic Survey on Italy in a virtual conference call together with the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco. Cormann focused on the need for greater competition for productivity and a reform of the public administration.