Pollsters’ forecasts on voting in big cities. The center-right favored in Turin
Five key cities to vote, with two (big) question marks for pollsters. If for Milan, Bologna and Naples there are clear predictions of victory for the center-left, in unison they all define the outcome of the administrations in Rome and Turin as totally unpredictable.
There are more candidates for mayor than expected: maybe many are marginal, but they gnaw votes, a decisive variable especially to outline the ballots – explains Antonio Noto, of the research institute of the same name -. The trend in favor of the center-left, also rewarding the M5S-Pd alliance. In Bologna? There is no match: Matteo Lepore will win. In Naples? If Gaetano Manfredi does not pass in the first round, he wins in the second. Ditto in Milan, again for Noto: The foregone conclusion: winning Sala. Bernardo was also left alone …. In Rome the chaotic situation – Noto still reflects -. Michetti, who started with 40%, but is losing more and more consensus: now it is around 30%. We will shortly present updated surveys, but according to the latest Raggi and Calenda the consensus was increasing. And the latter, according to the flows, was collecting from the center-right basin. How will it end? In the capital an indecipherable game, also because there are 22 candidates for mayor and you can go to the ballot even with only 23-24%. And in this scenario, again according to Noto: It could end up with a head to head between the dem Gualtieri and Michetti, with the M5S votes to tip the scales. In Turin Damilano ahead. The dem Lo Russo the candidate who denounces Appendino: here the line of Conte could be wrecked.
The center-right has a wide advantage at the national level – explains Fabrizio Masia, CEO by Emg Different -, but it will not be taken for granted that it manages to snatch a few cities from the center-left and the M5S. It will also be necessary to understand how much the variable alliances will affect Rome and Turin. And then we have to see if FdI really has the strength photographed by the polls: in fact, in the area I expect a lower strength than the “Giorgia effect”. The League? It has lost a lot of respect to the Europeans. The result in the cities of the South, after the boom, will be a key element. But according to Masia, the results will also be decisive for the Pd di Letta: Depending on how the alliance with M5S goes, there will be significant consequences, based on which the consolidation of Draghi will be accentuated or not and the blocks for the Quirinale will be formed. .
Nicola Piepoli, dean of the pollsters, offers one more than a numerical examination overall reading of the surveys made so far, focusing on the historical background of the cities: There is no match in Milan. There is great gratitude towards Sala: even six years after Expo, the Milanese have not forgotten. appreciated even among his sworn enemies. From the economic capital to the political one: Rome is a chaos: even the most accurate polls run the risk of making a big mistake – says Piepoli -. A guy’s visit or a news story in this or that neighborhood can move thousands of votes.
September 5, 2021 (change September 5, 2021 | 21:41)
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