The time limits for the trial in Italy have been set, and anyone is now more certain than that a judgment will be reached within a reasonable time; it will no longer last indefinitely, as the reform of the previous M5s Keeper Alfonso Bonafede feared.
The crisis of Mario Draghi’s government, threatened by Giuseppe Conte’s M5s, which would have put Italy in a black hole and would have made the spread soar, has been averted.
This is, as the international press also notes, the real victory of the executive and it is also what markets and Europe were asking to go ahead with the financing of the Recovery Plan.
The M5s yesterday celebrated its success of being able to extend the maximum time limit for the statute of limitations for some serious crimes. But honestly, it will be due to the distance that does not allow us to understand, this change does not appear substantial. To confirm this, the markets, which opposed the Bonafede reform, have instead welcomed the Cartabia reform that has just passed.
With the bowls stopped, it is important to understand what happened, because Italy only touched disaster by a whisker.
First of all the 5 stars. The changes they wanted are not fundamental, they do not substantially change the law nor was it so urgent to make them at this time, given that the issue had been discussed for months. The reason for this drama today then it seems essential.
That of Conte and the 5 Stars on justice seems to have been a coup de theater, to demonstrate their presence and give a signal to their audience of protesters and to their own justicialist contacts. Perhaps also to prepare for the serious fall of the government in September, when protected by the white semester, the chambers will not be dissolved and, in the event of the fall of the government, another one will still have to last until after the elections of the President of the Republic in February.
From the point of view of what the country needs, the drawing may seem insane. If Draghi falls, interests skyrocket, Recovery crashes, Brussels troika it would put the whole of Italy under a commissioner. But from an interest point of view particularissimi by Conte the drawing is shiny. Dropping Draghi opens up a situation of enormous confusion, like and worse than that of Covid, where Conte triumphed in the polls while not solving anything, on the contrary feeding fears and fears.
A situation in which Draghi, Italy’s international referent, is forced to resign, it is not known what government is being established, interests go to 5% and the State is technically bankrupt, salaries are not paid, Covid with its fourth wave goes crazy, the Brussels troika arrives, there are riots on the streets, it is exceptional for those in search of political fortune. Just as Mao said at the time of the Cultural Revolution when the Red Guards went mad in the streets, the children denounced and attacked parents and teachers and no one was safe: great is the disorder under the sky, the situation is excellent.
Chaos is everywhere the necessary premise for those who want to take power outside the ordinary channels. Mao voiced an ancient practice of the Chinese empires. Loyal mandarins tried to reform the state, even fighting against the body of other mandarins.
The bandits dreamed of revolutionaries and future emperors, but instead cheered on the status quo and chaos, which are siblings. Emperor Mao, who felt imprisoned by his mandarins and did not know where to lead the country, threw him into chaos aware that eventually the dust would settle somehow differently.
But the Italian 5-star revolutionaries are fortunately not of very strong pasta. So far they have not wanted chaos for fear of dissolving the rooms and thus losing their salary. But from 3 August a rare season opens: there may be chaos but the rooms cannot be dissolved. It is a paradox of democracy in Italy conceived 75 years ago to avoid instrumental elections and which today, in conditions very different from then, turns into a period of very high risk.
It is not clear whether the government is prepared for this. Beyond Conte’s moves, there is perhaps also something else to think about.
The government was caught off guard. The fault may have been of the premier himself, but it is certainly also of the Minister of Justice Marta Cartabia who had to better control the situation and prevent such a very dangerous degeneration.
In the face of this, and given that the justice dossier is so important for the 5 Star Movement, perhaps it would be appropriate for Luigi Di Maio to replace Cartabia as the keeper of the seals.
Also there is a need for a deep reflection of governanceno. If objectively, not subjectively, Conte has an interest in creating chaos, the other parties in parliament must decide which side they are on. It is clear that at this point, however, it will be very difficult for parliament to go beyond the election of the president, but for the next six months the others must decide whether they want chaos or future, orderly elections.
Finally, the most important issue of all: foreigners. There Tunisia, that is the door to Sicily, is on fire, the tensions of the new cold war between the US and China are increasing. Italy needs a government with a clear foreign policy, which is currently lacking. Without it, the chaos thrown out of the door today returns, multiplied, through the window.
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