Covid, more hospitalizations and deaths almost doubled in a week: it is the fourth wave

Covid, more hospitalizations and deaths almost doubled in a week: it is the fourth wave
Covid, more hospitalizations and deaths almost doubled in a week: it is the fourth wave

Milan, July 29, 2021 New infections, deaths and hospitalizations: the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy it is in a “delicate” phase. The Delta variant of the virus is raising the numbers and the fourth wave it seems more and more reality. For this, the health minister Roberto Speranza reiterated the need to maintain a position of prudence and caution, while the president of the Higher Institute of Health Silvio Brusaferro stressed that, in any case, the occurrence or not of new positives “It depends on us” and our behaviors. An invitation to keep attention also based on the daily numbers of the epidemic, which generally remain almost stable, continuing to highlight an increase in infections.

The rise in numbers has been confirmed, for some weeks now, by the data of the daily bulletin of the Ministry of Health. There are 6,171 positives in the last 24 hours compared to 5,696 yesterday, and there are 19 victims in one day (yesterday there were 15). The positivity rate is 2.7%, up from 2.3% yesterday. A leap also for hospital admissions: 194 patients hospitalized in intensive care, 11 more than yesterday, while the number of hospitalized in ordinary wards is 1,730, 45 more than the previous day.

Covid, July 29 Italy and Lombardy bulletin

“We actually entered the fourth wave “. After 15 weeks of decline, victims are back on the rise: 111 in the last week, 46% more than the 76 of the previous week. Almost doubled. This is what independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation concerning the week 21-27 July 2021, which sees a weekly increase of 64.8% of new cases (31,963 versus 19,390), a 42.9% increase in people in isolation (68,510 versus 47,951), a 34.9% increase in hospitalizations with symptoms (1,611 versus 1,194) and 14.5% in intensive care . After the first signs of recovery recorded last week – explained Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services of the Gimbe Foundation – a slight increase in hospitalizations which document the hospital impact of increased viral circulation“. Overall, the number of beds occupied by Covid patients in the medical area went from 1,088 on July 16 to 1,611 on July 27 and that of intensive care from 151 on July 14 to 189 on July 27, even if the percentages remain very low: nationally 3% in the medical area and 2% in intensive care, with all the Regions recording values ​​well below 15% for the medical area and 10% for the critical area. “ daily admissions to intensive care – added Marco Mosti, operational director of the Gimbe Foundation – they continue slowly to grow: the 7-day moving average is 14 admissions / day compared to 10 in the previous week “.

“We are in fact in the fourth wave” of Covid-19. He told ‘TimeLine’ on Sky Tg24 on virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco, lecturer at the State University of Milan. “We can talk about backlash, as I say to be a little more optimistic – he specified – compared to what could still be a situation that will get worse with less favorable weather conditions, with the reopening of schools and with the accumulation of cases, as we have seen in England where they are further ahead because they have left more time for the virus to spread “.” Let’s remember – the doctor warned – Every human contact we have at this moment we must consider it at risk. A small risk, with a low probability. However, if we have so many with respect to the lockdown, it is clear that we can stumble into the wrong one “. Always Pregliasco, speaking to the microphones of the program” Challenges daily “conducted by Roberta Sias on Cusano Italia Tv, said that” scenario that we will see will be the same as in Great Britain “.” We are already seeing an increase in the occupancy of beds in wards and intensive care – he added – but we also have evidence in Italy of the effectiveness of vaccination in avoiding especially more severe forms. 99% of deaths from February to date are of subjects not vaccinated or vaccinated with a single dose. The vaccine does not completely cover the infection, only in 88% it guarantees to avoid the infection, which in any case in the vaccinated runs substantially asymptomatically ”.

Talk about “fourth wave” too the infectious disease specialist Matteo Bassetti, Full Professor of Infectious Diseases at the University of Genoa and Director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino Polyclinic. “But it should not be confused with the previous three waves. The hospitals today are discharged “, he specified to the Agi. This does not mean that they will also be so in October when, together with Covid, seasonal flu could also circulate. “In October I don’t know what will happen,” added Bassetti. “At the moment the wave is of tampons – insisted the infectious disease specialist -, but not of hospitalizations. If a year ago we had had this wave, the hospitals would have broken out”. With an average of 35,000 cases per week, Italy, in the previous pandemic waves, had experienced greater hospital pressure. But the numbers in the ordinary departments are still growing. “As an indicator we need to look at the high intensity and not the average intensity – said the expert -. On the accesses we have as Covid we also count people with other disorders, but that Covid is counted, because they have a positive buffer “. A situation that needs to be clarified, also because it is precisely the data of hospital admissions that trigger the color changes of the Regions. “We should ask the Ministry of Health to differentiate the cases – said Bassetti -. Also to measure the colors of the Regions it would be important to know who is hospitalized for bilateral interstitial pneumonia from Covid-19 and who is there for a different problem, but tests positive for a control swab “.

A fourth wave of Covid-19 there will be, because of very contagious Delta variant, but this does not mean we will relive the terrible scenes of Bergamo and the national lockdowns. It is the thought of‘infectious disease specialist Massimo Galli, Full Professor of Infectious Diseases at the State University of Milan and head physician at the Sacco Hospital who, in an interview with Agi, said: “Any prevalence of a new variant could be responsible for a new pandemic wave. entity of the wave to be fundamental “. “The Delta variant infects young people and children”, explained Galli, who added: “the difference will be in the hospitalizations that will be contained thanks to the vaccination campaign”. “Last autumn the wave was terrible – recalled Galli -. Next October we will have a different wave, ‘ticked’ from the point of view of hospitals “. Therefore, in Galli’s opinion, other closures may not be necessary.” Lockdowns are the measure that is done when there is no other solution. Now, thanks to vaccines, the possibility of hospitals going into difficulty is drastically reduced “. And on the vaccine for children, Galli is sure:” I am going to extend the vaccination up to where it can be done, at any age ‘. Because the risks associated with the infection are more “.

The new parameters of the latest Covid decree put the regioni: Italy should remain all in white area also there next week. With the new criteria, the occupation of Covid beds in the medical and intensive care wards is decisive and not just the weekly incidence. The data to be kept under control is, however, always that of 50 weekly infections per 100 thousand inhabitants, exceeding that figure the risk is greater. But it is also necessary to occupy more than 10% of the beds in intensive care and more than 15% in the wards. For now, therefore, no region is at risk: lThe national average is currently 2% for intensive care and 3% for ordinary wards.

Region colors: what changes with the new parameters

The most shaky regions are found in the South and in the Center, where the national average is exceeded, it currently stands at 2%. In the first place there is Sardinia which, in one week, has seen the percentage of employment jump from 1% on 20 July to 5% in a week, according to the latest data updated by the Agency for Health Services (Agenas). Following Sicily with 4% (on 20 July it was 3%, on 25 it rose to 5% and then dropped to 4%) and Lazio, always at 4%, (percentage that had remained stable for many days at 3%, increased by one point). Tuscany and Calabria they are at 3% (the first had a small decline at 2%, but has returned to rise to 3%, while the second has kept the figure stable). Veneto, Lombardy and Campania are in line with the national average of 2%, while in the other autonomous regions and provinces there are lower percentages.

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