Italy (still) beats Germany in GDP estimates: the reasons

Italy (still) beats Germany in GDP estimates: the reasons
Italy (still) beats Germany in GDP estimates: the reasons

Italy stronger than Germany in the relaunch of the PIL?

Forecast numbers updated since IMF they confirm it: the Italian Gross Domestic Product will grow more than the German one.

There are several reasons that see our country relaunching GDP with greater vigor than Berlin. The details of the IMF estimates.

Italy’s GDP up, more than Germany: the estimates

According to the updated forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, theItaly in 2021 it will grow by 4,9%, with 0.7 percentage points more than the + 4.2% of the April estimates.

2022 is also estimated to improve: the beautiful country will see an estimated leap to +4,2% (greater than 0.6 percentage points from the spring forecast).

In contrast, the Germany it will advance by 3.6% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022.

On the front debtHowever, Italy lags behind and worsens: public debt at 157.8% of GDP in 2021, and deficit at 11.1%, up by 2.3 percentage points compared to the 8.8% forecast in April.

Why is Italian growth greater than German growth?

The IMF estimates confirmed when already highlighted by the EU Commission in May: Italy will run more than Germany.

To push the Italian leap there will be, on the horizon, a Recovery Fund generous considering the huge sum guaranteed by Brussels.

Furthermore, our country will discount a sharper rebound from the 2020 round of PIL to -8.9% compared to that of Germany of -4.8%.

It should also be noted that theGerman economy it is strongly linked to industry, with the automotive in the lead. The high prices of raw materials and the shortage of chips continue to threaten the recovery of the secondary sector, with production slowdowns.

In Germany there is also fear of the fourth wave, just announced by the Koch Institute.

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