The approval of the Prime Minister Draghi remains high (70), the government drops by 4 points
NIn recent weeks, the political climate has overheated around three issues, the Zan bill, the justice reform and the green pass, highlighting very clear divisions between the forces of the majority with a consequent decline in the approval rating of the government’s work. it passes from the 69th of June to the current 65th. Of course, this is a very high value, higher than that obtained at the settlement, attributable to the positive trend of the vaccination campaign and to the improved economic situation compared to the gloomy forecasts of a few months ago, with higher GDP growth estimates than to those of other EU countries. However, topical issues have aroused discontent in the various electorates and an overall weakening of the executive’s cohesive image. On the other hand, President Draghi does not seem to pay a lien for the growing quarrel of the forces of the majority, given that his approval rating shows only a slight decline, passing from 71 to 70. This is in any case the highest level ever reached by a premier more than five months after taking office.
As for the voting guidelines, there are four important aspects: first of all the reduction of the gray area of abstention and of indecision (from 40.3% in June to 37.2% today), presumably due to the greater liveliness of the political climate around the three issues which led some of the undecided to take sides. Secondly, the increase in consensus for the League (from 20.1% to 21.1%) and for the Democratic Party (from 19.7% to 20.9%) which are separated by only 2 decimals and benefit compared to FdI, which decreased by 0.4 points (from 19.4 to 19%). The third aspect to underline is the resumption of consensus for the M5S (from 16.5% to 17.1%), after the truce between Conte and Grillo. In fact, the sharpest increase when compared with the estimates made during the most acute phase of the conflict between the founder and the leader in pectore when the M5S had dropped to 14.5%. Finally, the drop in Forza Italia (from 7.9% to 7%) which returns to the values of a year ago. Overall, while the run of the first three parties remains very uncertain (the two treads lengthen slightly on the third, but the distance between Lega, Pd and FdI remains within the sample error), that between the coalitions leaves little room for uncertainty, given that the three forces of the center-right (47.1%) maintain a very clear advantage over those of the left and the center-left (31.8%).
As for the satisfaction of party leaders and ministers (limiting ourselves to those known to at least 50% of the population), Conte makes mark a recovery of appreciation (the index rises by 2 points, from 49 to 51) and followed by Giorgia Meloni (down by 3 points) and Speranza paired to 37, Salvini (31) and Letta (29). Among the ministers Franceschini (33) is confirmed in first place followed by Giorgetti (30), Orlando (27) and Di Maio (26). Today’s survey shows an evolving scenario and the next few months may reserve some further changes taking into account, first of all, the health situation: the delta variant of Covid, in fact, is causing an understandable increase in concern among Italians and the widespread fear of find ourselves in the autumn with a situation similar to that of last year, despite the high vaccination coverage of the population; in addition there is the controversy over the green pass. Then the issue of employment, with the critical situation in which some companies find themselves and the effects of the relaxation of social safety nets. And, again, the white semester, with the risk of centrifugal forces within the majority, as well as the municipal elections, the regional ones in Calabria and the supplementary ones (in one of which the secretary of the Democratic Party is a candidate), not to mention the dynamics for the election of the new President of the Republic. In short, a new warm autumn awaits us, not to mention hot.
July 25, 2021 (change July 25, 2021 | 07:15)
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