Quota 100 one of the symbolic measures of this legislature.
It dominated the political debate, impacted on relations between Italy and Brussels, weighed on the accounts, divided the Italians. He did discuss – he still does – on the direction of the reforms.
It was missing for an essential piece: who benefited from it?
It was never clear which sectors of society were most likely to take advantage of the measure in the first two of its three years of life.
Quota 100 allows between 2019 and 2021 to ask for a pension with 62 years of age and at least 38 years of contributions, without penalty on the check. more advantageous than the fixed model of 2012, which moves the retirement age with full rights to 67 years. Therefore, to the extent that it is financed with the public debt and with the wage system (i.e. with the contributions of all workers), Quota 100 becomes in fact a net transfer of resources from those who cannot or do not want to activate it to those who do.
But among the Italians who who received and who gave? A study of the INPS on a sample of about 70 thousand entitled persons now allows a first answer.
In distributive terms, Quota 100 was a net subsidy to the wealthy classes (who have chosen this option more than the average of those entitled).
In economic terms, it may have damaged the efficiency of essential sectors in contact with the public: from there there was a real exodus in full pandemic.
In terms of gender equality, was a net transfer of resources from women (who joined less) to men (who joined more).
And in political terms, benefited more voters predominantly from the Democratic Party (public employment, medium-high income) thanks to the contributions paid by the voters mainly from the Lega (self-employed, agricultural workers). It matters little that it was Matteo Salvini’s party that proposed the measure.
The highest incomes benefited from Quota 100
Let’s see these aspects one by one. Various evidences leave no doubt as to which are the classes that, having acquired the rights, have shown themselves more inclined to activate the mechanism. According to the estimate of the social security institution, employees of the public and private sector entered Quota 100 in 2020 they have an average income of 36,000 euros over the last five years (slightly less in 2019). This level places them roughly in the 70th percentile of the distribution, that is, they claim to earn more than more than two-thirds of income earners in Italy. It is no coincidence that the gross pension of public and private employees is now relatively high in Quota 100, at 2,200 euros per month.
The INPS estimates that the probability of joining for people who have an income in the medium-high part of the distribution – between the 50th and 75th percentile of income – is significantly higher than that of people with the same characteristics but lower earnings. Basically it was obvious: those who can afford it retire first, the others do not (but the latter pay for the former through their taxes and contributions).
The effect in the electorate
Part of this is the effect in the electorate, proportionally more in favor of those who vote for the Democratic Party and to the disadvantage of those who vote for the League. Not only because in the last elections – the 2019 European elections – according to Ipsos, the upper classes supported the DEM clearly more than the average voter. The effect on public employees also counts, more than proportionally voters of the Democratic Party and main beneficiaries of Quota 100: they represent 13.8% of the workers, but they are 37% of the so-called “centisti” in 2020. On the other hand, precisely the classes, including the particularly strong League, took advantage of Quota 100, despite having the right, less than all the others: 42% of the self-employed voted for Salvini’s party in 2019 but the INPS estimates that this category has a probability of adhere to an early retirement pension that is 27% lower than private employees. As for farmers – another category with a strong Northern League settlement – their presence among the “centist” pensioners, half of their demographic weight among the workers in the country.
You disadvantage women
As for women, all other things being equal their probability of activating Quota 100 is 11% lower than that of men: a really high gap, given that the average probability of joining among those entitled is 44%. Especially in the pandemic year 2020 there is a strong exodus of workers employed in essential sectors (51% of all early retirees), with a marked increase even in jobs where smart working is impossible. Those who have been able to protect their health in the first place.