Covid, Gimbe monitoring: + 61% of new cases, but hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing. At peak the first doses: -73%

In the last week, new coronavirus cases have increased by 61.4%. A surge in the face of which, however – it is the good news – deaths continue to drop (-35.8%), the total of currently positive (-4.5%), patients in intensive care (-16%) , hospitalized with symptoms in ordinary wards (-11.3%), people in home isolation (-4.3%). The only two regions that are “saved” from the percentage increase in new infections compared to the previous week due to the progressive spread of the Delta variant are Basilicata and Valle D’Aosta.

These are the data that emerge from the independent monitoring conducted by the Gimbe Foundation in the week from 7 to 13 July in relation to the previous one.

More cases, fewer tampons

“On the front of the new cases – he explains analyzing the numbers Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – there is a sharp weekly increase, which is underestimated by the continuously decreasing testing activity, which makes it impossible to track adequately the contacts. “Since the beginning of May the number of people tested weekly has in fact progressively increased reduced by 56.3%, from 662,549 to 289,869.

“The trend of hospitalized patients – he says Renata Gili, head of research on health services of the Gimbe Foundation – continues its descent both in the medical area and in intensive care, where the occupation of beds by Covid patients stands at 2 per cent. “All the Regions record values ​​below the 10 percent for the medical area and 5 percent for intensive care in which there are 7 regions that do not count Covid patients. “Daily admissions to intensive care – he explains Marco Mosti, operating director of the Gimbe Foundation – down for over 3 months, in the last week they recorded a slight increase with the moving average at one week which is 7 admissions per day compared to 5 in the previous week “.

Vaccines: peak first doses

As for vaccines, in the last week the number of administrations has remained stable with an average of just under 550 thousand inoculations per day. The almost nil oscillation, explain from Gimbe, depends both on the growing distrust of the over 60s towards adenoviral vector vaccines (2.7 million doses available), and on the need to set aside over 2.16 million doses of vaccines to mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) for the recalls, given the uncertainties about supplies that require the Regions to continue stop & go of the agendas. “In this scenario – explains Mosti – the percentage of first doses on the total doses administered has been gradually decreasing from 4 consecutive weeks: from the 2,955,191 first doses of the week 7-13 June (74 percent of the total) it has passed to 809,518 of the week 5-11 July (22 percent of the total), with a decrease of 73% “.

As of July 14, 63,659,024 doses of the Covid vaccine had been delivered. “At the moment – claims the Foundation – it is impossible to make forecasts for the third quarter given that the last update of the supply plan dates back to April 23 and, in the absence of an official final balance, it is not known whether the 15.2 million doses not delivered in the second trimester will be recovered or not in the coming months “.

Furthermore, the institute continues, estimates of more than 94 million doses for the third trimester are unrealistic as they include 6.64 million doses of the CureVac vaccine that failed clinical trials and 42 million doses of vaccines at adenoviral carrier for which the suspension of deliveries due to non-use by the Regions has been proposed. In other words, in the third quarter we could only have 45.5 million doses of mRNA vaccines, even if the EU has asked for more supplies and Prime Minister Mario Draghi has spent himself on boosting arrivals in Italy.

At the moment (11 am on July 15) the total of the administrations is about to touch 60 million. Just over 25 million citizens have completed the entire vaccination cycle.

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As for the possible extension of the green pass on the French model, Cartabellotta explains: “If virtuous behavior remains fundamental to limit the circulation of the virus, the use of the Green Pass on the French model for access to bars, restaurants and other activities, although desirable it is not very applicable in the short term due to various obstacles that should be faced and removed “. First of all:” The unavailability of vaccines for all those who would like to receive them and the non-free swabs in all Regions “which” generates a risk of discrimination “. Secondly, for the president of the Foundation “we need tools and resources for tight and systematic checks”. Finally, he says, “there is no law on the vaccination obligation for those who carry out tasks in contact with the public. And it is essential to put the theme of schools back at the center of the political agenda: in the absence of structural and organizational adjustments – warns Cartabellotta – for the next school year there is a real risk of having to resort again to distance learning, also considering that about 75% of the population 12-19 and over 216 thousand people employed in school (14.8%) have not yet received even a dose of vaccine “.

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