New cases on the rise after 15 weeks of descent, a vaccination campaign that slows down, mainly due to the uncertainty of supplies, thus putting it 5.75 million over 60s at risk, still not fully protected against Delta variant, which can be stemmed with the inoculation of both doses of the vaccine, and many, too many, over 50 who still “hesitate”, also a symptom of an “active call strategy” that never took off “despite the proclamations”. It is the photograph of the latest independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation which examines the week from 30 June to 6 July 2021.
The main focus is on the vaccination campaign which suffers a small setback. On the morning of July 7, the report reads, 59.6% of the population received at least one dose of the vaccine (n. 35,323,440) and 36.4% completed the vaccination cycle (n. 21,593,307). But, in fact, the number of administrations fell 4.1%, amounting to 3 million and 700 thousand inoculations per week, with an average of 524 thousand doses per day. It weighs, Gimbe points out, above all the uncertainty of the incoming doses and the distrust, particularly in the over 60s, towards Astrazeneca e Johnson&Johnson. In detail, the percentage of administration of first doses decreases, with the Regions that tend to keep stocks for reminders: “The number of first inoculations – explains Marco Mosti, operational director of the Foundation – has been decreasing for 3 consecutive weeks with a value that fell from 74% in the week from 7-13 June to 38% in the week 28 June – 4 July, with a decrease of 49% in 3 weeks “.
Despite the uncertainty of the doses arriving, there are still 6 million doses already delivered to the Regions waiting to be inoculated: 2,095,382 from Pfizer / BioNTech, 600,970 from Moderna, 2,365,462 from AstraZeneca, 1,000,007 from Johnson & Johnson. But delays in deliveries remain: as of July 7, 60,989,653 doses were delivered, equal to 80% of those scheduled for the 1st half of 2021. In the second quarter alone, over 15 million doses are missing. Almost half of these are due to the lack of authorization by CureVac (48% of missing doses). But other vaccines are also struggling to arrive: Astrazeneca has not delivered more than 2 million doses, Johnson & Johnson, on the other hand, 5 million, equal to 33.2% of the total, explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Foundation. On paper, for the third quarter, we should have almost 45.5 million doses of mRna vaccines and 41 million adenoviral vector vaccines, as well as 6.6 million CureVacs which, however, Gimbe specifies, should be eliminated from the next vaccination plan. , since, to date, it has not yet been updated.
Mostly 5.75 million over 60s are at risk which, with the arrival of the Delta variant, having not yet completed the vaccination cycle, could face serious illness. In detail, 2.29 million (12.8%) have not yet received even a dose of vaccine with significant regional differences (from 22.6% of Sicily to 7.7% of Puglia) and over 3.46 million (19.4%) must complete their cycle after the first dose. Above all, Gimbe notes, “in the 50-59 and 60-69 range, vaccination hesitation is evident, in particular for adenoviral vector vaccines, the result of fake news and institutional communication unable to transmit the risk-benefit profile” . “Furthermore, despite the proclamations, a true active calling strategy never took off nationwide“, Specifics Gimbe.
Despite the increase in infections (+ 5% with 5,571 new cases compared to 5,306 in the previous week), the deaths and hospitalizations figures continue to improve. The deaths in seven days were 162 (against 220 last week), 1271, however, hospitalized with symptoms, with a decrease of 24.2% compared to 1676 last week. Intensive care also fell, with a decrease of 30.7% (270 people were in intensive care, compared to 187 this week).
“Dfter 15 consecutive weeks of descent there is an increase of 5% compared to the previous week. Also the testing activity, after 7 weeks of decline, registers a increase of 15.5%, however continuing to settle on too low numbers, resulting in underestimation of new cases and insufficient contact tracing ”, notes Cartabellotta. From the week of May 5-11, in fact, the number of swabs has progressively reduced, passing from 662,549 tests to 263,213, up to 303,969 this week. The trend reversal of the new cases is recorded in 11 regions, Abruzzo, Campania, Liguria, Lombardy, Marche, the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, Sardinia, Sicily, Tuscany and Valle d’Aosta. On the other hand, the downward trend of hospitalized patients continues. From the peak of 6 April, the number of beds occupied in the medical area fell from 29,337 to 1,271, and those in intensive care from 3,743 to 187.
“The increase in cases resulting from the spread of the Delta variant – concludes Cartabellotta – is destined to continue in the coming weeks it must not generate alarmism. Certainly the data is worrying about its potential impact on hospitals which will be inversely proportional to the complete vaccination coverage of the over 60s. contact tracing and sequencing, both implement active call strategies for those over 60 who have not yet booked, and speed up the administration of second doses. Finally, we are all called to actively contribute to slowing down the spread of the delta variant by maintaining responsible behavior and avoiding the mistakes of last summer ”.