A disappointing first half for the Italian auto market, which marks time and discounts a gap of 13.3 percentage points compared to June 2019, the phase preceding the pandemic alarm. The growth compared to the period January-June 2020 is equal to 12.6%, this is a recovery compared to months characterized by lockdown and production stoppage, which however does not compensate for the non-registrations compared to two years ago.
The market therefore remains far from the levels of 2019 (pre-Covid) but is catching up and still halving the lack of volumes which in May was double compared to May 2019.
There were 884,750 cars registered as shown by the processing of the Centro Studi Promotor, while in June 2019 there were 1,083,184: 198,434 cars are missing, worth a turnover of 3.69 billion euros and a VAT revenue of 813 million .
“If the result of the first six months of this year is projected onto the whole of 2021 – underlines Gian Primo Quagliano, President of the Promotor Study Center – taking into account the average incidence of the turnover of the first half over the entire year, it emerges that the volume of registrations for the whole of 2021 could amount to 1,566,000 with a loss, compared to 2019, of 351,022 registrations and a consequent drop in turnover equal to 6.53 billion euros, with a lower VAT revenue of 1.43 billion ” .
If we look at the results of the various brands, it emerges that the recovery in volumes over last year as a percentage fluctuates in the half year between 40 and 60% for the main brands, from Volkswagen to Fiat via Peugeot, while in the month the negative performance emerged on June 2020 of Alfa Romeo, Ford, Honda, Renault, Mercedes and Land Rover.
The game of incentives
The sector is still suffering from a demand crisis which is struggling to reverse the trend. For this reason, the game of incentives remains central for dealers and producers. In order to maintain volumes in the second half of the year, incentives for “traditional” cars must also be put back on track, up to 135 grams per kilometer of CO2, up until last April and now exhausted.
We will talk about this again during the conversion phase of the Sostegni bis law, even if for now there are no concrete steps forward.